New Year, Same Old Hungary?
Gabriela Greilinger brings you up to speed on what’s been happening for the past two weeks.
Just after our last edition before Christmas and the end of the year was sent out, on Saturday, December 21, Prime Minister Orbán held his end-of-year international press conference. As expected, it served more as a monologue for Orbán and Fidesz-friendly news outlets, as most of the large independent media were unable to ask any questions. He started his speech by expressing condolences to the German people after the horrific attack in Magdeburg the day before, but not without instrumentalising the attack perpetrated by a Saudi refugee for political purposes, claiming that “these phenomena have only existed in Europe since the migration crisis.” Yet, Orbán failed to acknowledge that the attacker was, according to his views expressed online, anti-Islam and a supporter of the right-wing extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Following that, he discussed the Hungarian presidency, bound to end on December 31, stating that it was unanimously praised by the European Council – once again leaving out its failures and “hiccups”, such as the numerous “peace missions” Orbán conducted that remained unsuccessful. In fact, even the “Christmas ceasefire” the government proposed and promoted before the Holidays fell through spectacularly, with Putin launching further attacks on Ukraine on Christmas Day.
Orbán continued by praising the inclusion of Romania and Bulgaria in the Schengen area during the Hungarian presidency, a politically important step. Specifically, Romania joining Schengen is of particular significance for Hungary, given that the largest share of ethnic Hungarian minorities still live there. Removing these borders thus allows ethnic Hungarians to cross the border to neighbouring Hungary faster and also “opens up a new perspective and a new opportunity for Hungary.” Certainly, it gives Orbán leverage and popularity among ethnic Hungarians abroad, who are allowed to vote in Hungarian national elections (and overwhelmingly did so in the past for Fidesz).
Setting Orbán’s self-praise aside, the presidency proved one thing successfully: the EU’s unwillingness or inability, but above all, complacency when it comes to Viktor Orbán’s shenanigans. First contemplating whether to strip Orbán’s Hungary of its presidency for too long, the bloc later, after Orbán enraged EU leaders with his “peace mission” by visiting autocrats around the world under the banner of the presidency, discussed boycotting informal meetings and high-level EU presidency events in Budapest. But even here, the EU’s (dis-)unity on the matter showed, as not all member states adhered to the suggested boycott, some even protested it. In fact, high-level meetings were largely held as planned, and spurious boycotts did little harm, it seems. Adding insult to injury, the Hungarian presidency specifically promoted the luxurious Dorothea Hotel, owned by Prime Minister Orbán’s son-in-law, to guests and representatives of the European Political Community (EPC) visiting Budapest for the November summit, as Direkt36 reports. Once more, Orbán managed to trick and troll the EU while also (intentionally or unintentionally) demonstrating the bloc’s inability and assertiveness to keep its member states in check.
Orbán’s end-of-year monologue naturally also touched upon the US elections, the outcome of which (Trump’s win) certainly pleased the Prime Minister. Claiming that the EU needs to realise that we will all soon be living in a new reality, with a shifting balance of power in the Western world, Orbán concluded that “new things will happen, things that we have never dreamed of before – or at most what we Hungarians have dreamed of”. Well, what is a dream to some might be a nightmare to others.
Although it is relatively certain that Trump will once more disrupt the global order and pose a challenge to the EU on various levels, Orbán, given his relations with the president-elect, seems to be trying to position himself as part of a transatlantic bridge.
In the last part of his speech, Orbán turned back to national politics and the economy. First, he claims the EU is fining Hungary €1 million per day for “guarding its borders.” Needless to say, this is untrue. The European Court of Justice fined Hungary for its infringement of EU law because the country denies refugees the right to claim asylum—a right guaranteed by Articles 18 and 19 in the EU Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Finally, he listed some of the economic measures the government plans to implement in the coming year, among them more support for rent and mortgage payments to young people, a minimum wage increase of 40 per cent over the next years and “projects of national economic importance” such as the BMW factory. He closed by saying that 2025 would be a great year for the Hungarian economy and that new times are coming – which is hard to believe given the dire state of the economy. All of this is exacerbated by the ‘loss’ of just over $1 billion (yes, you read that right) in EU money by the end of 2024, as the EU denied Hungary funding due to the government’s failure to tackle persistent corruption. Notably, this is the first time the EU has taken such a drastic step against a member state after years of looking on.
In light of high inflation, the bad economy’s bad shape and the ruling party’s habitual corruption, one wonders where the Orbán government will take the money for these measures from. Meanwhile, Orbán’s most dangerous challenger, Péter Magyar, continues to rise in the polls, as he has done for months, uncovering and showcasing the Fidesz government’s failures and widescale corruption that leaves the country in a dire state. In view of Fidesz’s consequential steady decline in popularity, it is no wonder that Orbán tries to refocus the attention on the economy and welfare provisions in an attempt to halt Magyar’s rise.
Is it the economy, stupid?
While I wouldn’t blame Orbán’s decline entirely on the economy, it’s worth noting that Fidesz was usually able to quell unrest and dissatisfaction using government handouts. Given the grim economic situation the country is already in, the loss of EU funds will put further strain on Fidesz, which is trying to take the wind out of the opponent’s (read: Magyar’s) sails. Economic promises to the Hungarian people are core to this strategy. Over the last 1.5 decades, Fidesz has largely been able to keep around voters using economic policy incentives and targeted welfare initiatives to appeal to specific groups, largely middle-class voters.
As the scholars Dorottya Szikra and Kerem Gabriel Öktem write in their comparative analysis of Turkey and Hungary, Fidesz’s welfare state restructuring also enabled the party to ensure the electoral support of core voter blocs. However, today, soaring inflation coupled with a strain on the budget and the loss of millions in EU funding challenge Fidesz’s ability to overspend and finance broad welfare policies with more than a year out until regular elections. Still, the government continued to make promises: Just in November 2024, the State Secretary announced that tax allowances to families raising children, one of Fidesz’s flagship programmes, will double with further increases planned by July 2025 and then January 2026 – just in time before the next regularly scheduled national election.
To sum up, Fidesz’s outlook to win back voters in 2025 and reverse its decline seems slimmer by the minute. Meanwhile, all its attempts to wipe out Magyar’s popularity using smear campaigns and frankly pathetic tactics appear to fall on deaf ears at the end of the year.
New year, same old Hungary?
Just as rocky as the old year ended for Orbán and his party, so did the new year start: Péter Magyar, perhaps the most serious challenger to Orbán’s 15-year-long rule, rang in the new year 2025 by posting a video statement calling for early elections. Somewhere around the mid-point of his 14-minute-long speech, Magyar addresses Orbán directly, claiming the PM had every opportunity with his two-thirds majority rule and millions in EU money to “put this country in order” but chose not to and instead betrayed Hungary and its people. According to Magyar, there cannot be any more chances given to Orbán, and the country has no time to wait until the regular elections in 2026. Thus, he calls for early elections to be held as soon as possible.
Perhaps most interestingly in this video, Magyar reminds Orbán of the deep 2008 financial crisis Hungary found itself in under the socialist government led by Ferenc Gyurcsány, when Orbán himself, back then in opposition, called on the government to step aside and hold early elections in the interest of the country, calls the socialists ignored. “Sounds familiar, doesn’t it?”, Magyar asks, claiming that Orbán had become Gyurcsány.
Perhaps unbeknownst to those unfamiliar with the common attacks and name-calling in Hungarian politics, equating Orbán with Gyurcsány presents a significant and considerable attack. Fidesz frequently uses the disgraced socialist former PM to undermine political opponents, portraying them as part of the same evil, corrupt conspiracy. Now Orbán gets a taste of his own medicine, with Magyar turning the tables.
Yet, despite Magyar’s current popularity in the polls, this does not by a long shot mean the end of Orbán. Keep in mind that the United Opposition that ran in the 2022 elections polled head-to-head for some time with Fidesz, too – before dramatically failing in the elections. All to say that: Early elections are unlikely, and there is still a long way until 2026.
Fidesz is certainly aware of that reality and will play the long game: launching further attacks and character assassination attempts on Magyar, as well as redrawing electoral districts to increase their chances of winning the 2026 elections. Meanwhile, Trump’s return to the White House and the success of far-right politicians and parties will be instrumentalised to further legitimise Fidesz’s extreme positions and present itself as the “normal”, only viable and logical choice in the current state of the world. This already worked once, in 2022, when Fidesz played on fear, portraying opponents as irrational warmongers. Certainly, they’ll find a strategy this time, too.
Gabriela Greilinger