Panel #3 - Post-election Panel
Our regular contributors offer their takes on Sunday’s European Parliamentary and local election results.
Results:
Turnout: 56,09%
European Parliament election results after 99.98% of the votes counted:
Fidesz: 44.72% (11 seats), Tisza: 29.63% (7 mandates), MSZP-DK-Párbeszéd-P: 8.09% (2 seats), Mi Hazánk: 6.74% (1 seat), Momentum: 3.68% (no seats), MKKP: 3.58% (no seats), Jobbik: 1% (no seats), LMP: 0.87% (no seats), 2RK: 0.68% (no seats), MMN: 0.37% (no seats), MEMO: 0,37% (no seats)
Local elections (100% processed):
Gergely Karácsony: 47.53%, Dávid Vitézy: 47.49%, András Grundtner: 4.98%
The difference between Karácsony and Vitézy’s vote count is 324 votes, Vitézy already stated that he will attempt to request a recount due to the high number of invalid votes.
Budapest Assembly list: Fidesz: 28.69% (10 seats), Tisza: 27.34% (10 seats), DK-MSZP-P: 16.62% (6 seats), VDB-LMP: 10.15% (3 seats), MKKP: 7.89% (3 seats), Momentum: 4.98% (no seats), Mi Hazánk: 3,81% (no seats)
Key mayoral swings from Fidesz to opposition: Budapest District XII, Szolnok, Nagykanizsa, Győr
Key mayoral swings from opposition to Fidesz: Budapest District I, Miskolc, Baja, Salgótarján, Eger
All county councils were won by Fidesz. Mi Hazánk came second in all of them, except Pest and Somogy.
Today’s panel includes our regular contributors, Hanna Fölsz, Gabriela Greilinger, and Lili Rutai
Which parties are the biggest winners and losers in this election?
Gabriela: On a European level, the biggest winner is probably the TISZA party, with roughly 30% of the votes which translates into 7 MEP seats – that is quite something, especially for a party that only appeared a few months ago. Overall, the biggest losers, in my view, are all other opposition parties, except the extreme right Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland), which for the first time in the party’s history will send one MEP to Brussels. As for the other opposition parties: Neither Momentum, MKKP nor Jobbik got enough votes to (re-)enter the European Parliament. Meanwhile, the DK–MSZP–Dialogue Alliance only managed to get 2 seats. And although Fidesz lost quite a lot percentage-wise, the 10% decline still only translates to a loss of 1 MEP, so 11 instead of 12 MEPs. So for me, left-wing, liberal parties are the biggest losers when it comes to the EU election results.
Lili: Despite pro-Europe centrist parties performing well across the eastern member states, the Hungarian Momentum party didn't get enough votes to send a single representative to the EP - which makes them the biggest loser in this election. This is a somewhat surprising development, as their current representatives, Anna Donáth and Katalin Cseh, were the best-rated Hungarian MEPs in a recent poll. This year, they decided to partake in the elections outside of the leftist cooperation led by socialist DK. Momentum candidate András Rózsa managed to snatch Zugló, the 14th district of Budapest from Fidesz, but this is hardly a reason to celebrate for the youth party.
Hanna: Tisza Party is clearly the biggest winner here, having emerged as the most serious single contender to Fidesz in a matter of months. Securing almost 30% in the European Parliament election means they are the opposition party to achieve the highest vote-share during Fidesz’s rule outside of a coalition. With this feat, they have reshaped the Hungarian political landscape for good. The biggest loser is Momentum. While just a few months ago, they garnered levels of support above 10% in polls, they failed to secure even 4% of the votes in the EP election. Unluckily, they also just missed the 5% threshold - by a mere 0.02%! - to enter the Budapest local council. While, as Lili points out, they had a few notable successes in the local elections, particularly securing some notable mayoral offices and winning a large number of seats in the (not very influential) county councils, their future as a consequential political force seems at risk.
What result surprised you the most?
Lili: Budapest’s affluent 12th district, a Fidesz-fortress and home to many members of the governing party, voted for a member of the “joke” Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) as mayor. Gergő Kovács, the co-president of MKKP and an unlikely candidate with little experience in politics, won over the previous Fidesz mayor’s protegee. The district, dubbed the “Mountain area” for its rich greenery, clean air, grand villas and hiking routes on the Normafa hill, has been a stronghold for the right since the 90s. The previous mayor, Zoltán Pokorni, was in power since 2006, and announced his resignation earlier this year. Kovács, a graffiti artist who has been in the local administration since 2019, has exposed misplaced tenders, destruction of forested areas and constructions with ties to the government. His win perhaps signals a changing tide in Fidesz’ areas
Gabriela: I was surprised to see how weak the other opposition parties performed in the EU elections – although I expected them to lose to TISZA, I didn’t think it would be this bad. I’m particularly shocked by the results of Momentum, which lost both of its MEPs who were strong anti-Orbán and pro-democracy forces within the European Parliament. It’s likewise astounding (although it was also largely expected) how strongly TISZA was supported, despite not having a program and only appearing on the political stage roughly three months ago.
Hanna: The greatest surprise to me was Fidesz’s failure to mobilize to the same degree the opposition, and particularly Tisza, could inspire voters to turn out. Fidesz has attempted its greatest door-to-door mobilization campaign to date, aiming to knock on 1 million doors before the election. Despite this, it garnered only 44% of the EP votes, their worst performance in EP elections to date. This falls short of most predictions prior to the election, despite Fidesz’s track record of overperforming compared to polling companies’ expectations in recent elections. It seems this result is largely explained by their relative failure to mobilize: turnout increased 16% compared to the previous election yet Fidesz’s vote-share fell by over 8%. It is also worth noting that it fell by largely similar proportions in rural and urban localities. Although Fidesz managed to withstand the significant amnesty scandal and navigate challenging economic conditions, for the first time in over a decade, there are small signs of cracks in their aura of invincibility.
Péter Magyar’s Tisza party is now the largest opposition party by far. Is there a way back for the left-wing and liberal opposition parties?
Gabriela: It’s hard to tell, honestly. I think Magyar managed to unite and win over disenchanted voters from all backgrounds, even liberal and left-wing voters despite him being centre-right, by addressing many Hungarians’ woes and providing a vision of how this country should be transformed (while not really saying how this can be achieved). I don’t want to paint a doomsday scenario for the left and liberals for the 2026 elections here, but I think we will see a battle between right-wing and far-right politics, dominated by Magyar’s TISZA on the one hand and Fidesz on the other. Magyar will occupy and dominate whatever little space is left for opposition parties and I think they will have a hard time competing against him, as they are themselves rather fragmented.
Hanna: I believe both should be worried but the liberal opposition parties have to be much more worried than the left. The Democratic Coalition - the left-wing party led by Klára Dobrev, the wife of the infamous ex-prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsány - should be largely safe from the Tisza wave. While its supporter numbers can further decrease, it should be somewhat confident that it can hold onto its loyal fan base. This is because Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party have taken aim at the old opposition almost as much as at Fidesz. Péter Magyar believes his first job is to get rid of Gyurcsány and DK - the worst of the old, discredited opposition elite. This approach should hardly win over DK’s committed supporters, making it somewhat safe in at least the near future. The liberal parties should be more worried. When they emerged, both Momentum and the Two-Tailed Dog Party, MKKP positioned themselves as the new political force that will present an alternative to the old Orbán vs. Gyurcsány battle. By now, Momentum has definitely been tainted by its coalition with DK and feels more ‘old’ than ‘new’, something that does not resonate with many of its own supporters either. MKKP may have to worry about Tisza’s anti-elite message resonating with and drawing away its more ardent supporters - as it has already done so with its less committed voters.
At 44,72%, Fidesz performed below expectations but they are above 40% and won 11 mandates, the most by a clear margin. Should Viktor Orbán be worried about 2026?
Lili: In his late-night address, Viktor Orbán claimed that Fidesz “won” both European and municipal elections. The pro-government media, and local newspapers celebrated this victory on the front pages, and that’s the only information many in Hungary will receive today. “Stop migration, stop gender, stop war, stop Soros, stop Brussels,” Orbán said at his speech, nothing short of the pre-election messaging. In short: he doesn’t seem worried.
At the same time, it seems like Hungarians became much more political, as Hungarians are feeling the weight of inflation, and are increasingly dissatisfied with crumbling healthcare and deteriorating education. Turnout, at 56%, was far higher than at the last election (43%) and even higher than previous estimates: András Bíró-Nagy, director of Budapest-based think tank Policy Solutions, for example, predicted 48-50%. No doubt, Péter Magyar and his Tisza party stirred public opinion. The question is whether they will be able to mobilize more voters for 2026, or at least keep the momentum.
Gabriela: I think there is still a lot of time until then, which can be a good but also a bad thing for Orbán. Good, because Fidesz has enough time to pan out a strategy and ramp up the propaganda machinery – and we have already seen part of that last night in his “victory” speech, as Lili mentioned. Or it can be a bad thing because TISZA was very successful after only being on the political stage for a few months, and they will keep campaigning, building up the party, convincing more voters etc. and they have plenty of time to do that. The question remains whether TISZA’s momentum will hold, but I do think so.
Overall, I’m not sure Orbán is worried, or needs to be worried for now – he has the state media on his side, which controls what a large portion of people in the country hear, and he has allies installed across key organisations. So even if Fidesz loses some of its parliamentary support, it still has a tight grip on the country through various institutions.
What is the most significant result of the night?
Gabriela: As someone who focuses more on the European stage and looks ahead at the national 2026 election, I think the overwhelming success of TISZA is significant in the sense that it gives an insight into their potential for the upcoming 2026 national parliamentary elections. They now have two more years to shape their profile, tour the country (like they did for this election), flesh out their program, and win over more people. Also, they are set to join EPP in the European Parliament, where Fidesz previously sat, which may give them some profile and standing. So, for me, the results on some levels confirmed that they will remain Orbán’s most serious challengers in 2026.
Lili: I agree that the success of Magyar's Tisza party is the biggest surprise of this election. But I think the question is how they will behave in the EP and in local administrations. Apart from being anti-Orbán and skeptical of the opposition, we don’t know much about the policies of Tisza.
Hanna: I also agree that Tisza’s victory is the most significant surprise but I share Lili’s doubts. Adding to her points, it is worth mentioning that we also know incredibly little about the persons, not just the policies that Tisza will bring to the European and local political scene. None of Tisza’s newly elected MEPs or Budapest local council members have any notable political experience. Not taking into account Péter Magyar, beyond a brief CV and a video interview for the MEPs and maybe an occasional press interview, we also know incredibly little about who they are, what their political convictions are, what level of expertise they will bring, what policies they will stand for, and how they will act in office. This is an unprecedented level of uncertainty. Tisza has been a one-man-show until now, but a one-man-show can hardly sustain and build political momentum across the country for two years until the 2026 national elections. So, the party’s other politicians will have to start to matter soon.
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